Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Mexico State Aggies, while the market favors UTEP Miners (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: UTEP Miners (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico State Aggies (75%) · New Mexico State Aggies at 49¢ · $617 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
New Mexico State Aggies
4
New Mexico State Aggies 75%
1 arb excluded
$616.53
$2.8
Research grade
AvoidNew Mexico State Aggies at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors UTEP Miners 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | UTEP Minersavg 51¢ | $502.05 | $492.06 | -$9.99 | 55% 294-243 (537) |
| └ UTEP Miners leg | UTEP Minersavg 51¢ | $328.89 | $328.89 | +$0 | |
| └ New Mexico State Aggies leg | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 52¢ | $173.16 | $163.17 | -$9.99 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 47¢ | $67.21 | $67.21 | +$0 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | UTEP Minersavg 48.2¢ | $48.24 | $51.03 | +$2.79 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 47¢ | $3.58 | $3.73 | +$0.15 | 19% 127-533 (660) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 50¢ | $2.65 | $2.5 | -$0.15 | 38% 507-819 (1326) |
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$502.05
Value
$492.06
PnL
-$9.99
Record
55%
294-243 (537)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.21
Value
$67.21
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$48.24
Value
$51.03
PnL
+$2.79
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$3.58
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.15
Record
19%
127-533 (660)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
38%
507-819 (1326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.