Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Santa Clara Broncos: O/U 166.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
$1.6K
-$48.09
51¢ → 35¢
-31% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 35%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$39.36 | 56% 3787-2956 (6743) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 51.4¢ | $221.67 | $198.98 | -$6.7 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 51.7¢ | $77.5 | $74.25 | -$3.25 | 54% 1691-1455 (3146) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $23.4 | $22.28 | -$1.13 | 53% 353-317 (670) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $9.34 | $11.86 | +$2.51 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.48 | -$0.18 | 42% 763-1062 (1825) |
Invested
$1,338.22
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$39.36
Record
56%
3787-2956 (6743)
Invested
$221.67
Value
$198.98
PnL
-$6.7
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$77.5
Value
$74.25
PnL
-$3.25
Record
54%
1691-1455 (3146)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$22.28
PnL
-$1.13
Record
53%
353-317 (670)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$11.86
PnL
+$2.51
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.18
Record
42%
763-1062 (1825)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.