Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Santa Clara Broncos: O/U 164.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 40¢ · $158 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$158.15
-$24.19
46.5¢ → 40¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $134.29 | $51.14 | -$34.05 | 48% 3662-4031 (7693) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 54.8¢ | $36.21 | $44.95 | +$8.74 | 56% 3811-2982 (6793) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.4¢ | $29.65 | $30.97 | +$1.32 | 54% 1714-1481 (3195) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $27.47 | $27.88 | +$0.41 | 48% 4388-4660 (9048) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $1.47 | $1.61 | +$0.14 | 38% 134-216 (350) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $1.6 | -$0.75 | 42% 775-1070 (1845) |
Invested
$134.29
Value
$51.14
PnL
-$34.05
Record
48%
3662-4031 (7693)
Invested
$36.21
Value
$44.95
PnL
+$8.74
Record
56%
3811-2982 (6793)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$29.65
Value
$30.97
PnL
+$1.32
Record
54%
1714-1481 (3195)
Invested
$27.47
Value
$27.88
PnL
+$0.41
Record
48%
4388-4660 (9048)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.61
PnL
+$0.14
Record
38%
134-216 (350)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.75
Record
42%
775-1070 (1845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.