Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 155.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$25.46

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$611.45

Total Shares1,132

Combined PnL+$5.57

Over7 traders

Total Value$455.76

Total Shares940

Combined PnL+$19.89

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Underavg 53.5¢	$605.88	$611.45	+$5.57	— 10-8 (18)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$352.43	$362	+$9.57	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$216.5	$223.41	+$6.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$135.93	$138.59	+$2.66
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$146.16	$154.1	+$7.94	53% 388-339 (727)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$500	$121.25	+$4.25	75% 112-37 (149)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69	$72.75	+$3.75	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$45.59	$47.05	+$1.45	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$51.53	$30.08	+$1.55	53% 1030-921 (1951)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$18.9	$19.51	+$0.6	15% 24-137 (161)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$10.68	$11.02	+$0.34	43% 808-1065 (1873)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Under

Invested

$605.88

Value

$611.45

PnL

+$5.57

Record

—

10-8 (18)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$352.43

Value

$362

PnL

+$9.57

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Both legs:

Over$216.547¢+$6.91

Under$135.9353¢+$2.66

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$146.16

Value

$154.1

PnL

+$7.94

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69

Value

$72.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.59

Value

$47.05

PnL

+$1.45

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.53

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$1.55

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

$19.51

PnL

+$0.6

Record

15%

24-137 (161)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.68

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.34

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.