Nicholls Colonels vs. Tulane Green Wave
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane Green Wave (67%) · Tulane Green Wave at 83¢ · $57 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Tulane Green Wave
6
Tulane Green Wave 67%
$57.24
-$0.78
Research grade
AvoidTulane Green Wave at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Tulane Green Wave. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $27.65 | $27.65 | +$0 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $10.98 | $10.98 | -$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 78¢ | $7.84 | $7.94 | +$0.1 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Nicholls Colonelsavg 23.2¢ | $6.04 | $5.46 | -$0.58 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Tulane Green Waveavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.95 | -$0 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Nicholls Colonelsavg 26¢ | $1.56 | $1.26 | -$0.3 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
Invested
$27.65
Value
$27.65
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$10.98
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$7.94
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$6.04
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.58
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.