New Haven Chargers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Penn State Nittany Lions (56%) · Penn State Nittany Lions at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Penn State Nittany Lions
9
Penn State Nittany Lions 56%
$3.8K
-$124.72
90.8¢ → 99.6¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPenn State Nittany Lions at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Penn State Nittany Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pagliacci4 | Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 97.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | -$166.71 | 73% 87-32 (119) |
NO NotJump | Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 50¢ | $525 | $508.2 | -$16.8 | 50% 1210-1232 (2442) |
38 38791873984189 | Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 95¢ | $456.52 | $422.85 | +$22.22 | 48% 4069-4469 (8538) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | New Haven Chargersavg 2.4¢ | $67.24 | $143.29 | +$76.04 | 46% 1242-1436 (2678) |
PA Pan9X | Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 95¢ | $143.51 | $137.48 | +$3.8 | 50% 2219-2233 (4452) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 98.3¢ | $9.82 | $9.74 | -$0.08 | 48% 4837-5163 (10000) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | New Haven Chargersavg 4.9¢ | $27.46 | $6.43 | -$21.03 | 38% 1414-2288 (3702) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | New Haven Chargersavg 4.6¢ | $25.23 | $2.45 | -$22.78 | 38% 1437-2336 (3773) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | New Haven Chargersavg 2¢ | $0.4 | $1.02 | +$0.62 | 54% 6103-5202 (11305) |
Invested
$2,705.44
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$166.71
Record
73%
87-32 (119)
Invested
$525
Value
$508.2
PnL
-$16.8
Record
50%
1210-1232 (2442)
Invested
$456.52
Value
$422.85
PnL
+$22.22
Record
48%
4069-4469 (8538)
Invested
$67.24
Value
$143.29
PnL
+$76.04
Record
46%
1242-1436 (2678)
Invested
$143.51
Value
$137.48
PnL
+$3.8
Record
50%
2219-2233 (4452)
Invested
$9.82
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
4837-5163 (10000)
Invested
$27.46
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$21.03
Record
38%
1414-2288 (3702)
Invested
$25.23
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$22.78
Record
38%
1437-2336 (3773)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
6103-5202 (11305)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
pagliacci4
Penn State Nittany Lions — $2.5K
NotJump
Penn State Nittany Lions — $508.2
38791873984189
Penn State Nittany Lions — $422.85
SnakeBall
CTRNew Haven Chargers — $143.29
Pan9X
Penn State Nittany Lions — $137.48
Flaznorp
Penn State Nittany Lions — $9.74
Limousin
CTRNew Haven Chargers — $6.43
LightParadox
CTRNew Haven Chargers — $2.45
RN1
CTRNew Haven Chargers — $1.02