Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nevada Wolf Pack, while the market favors UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nevada Wolf Pack (60%) · Nevada Wolf Pack at 50¢ · $595 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nevada Wolf Pack
5
Nevada Wolf Pack 60%
$595.36
-$0.56
49.1¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNevada Wolf Pack at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors UC Santa Barbara Gauchos 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Nevada Wolf Pack. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Nevada Wolf Packavg 49¢ | $483.64 | $483.64 | +$0 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | UC Santa Barbara Gauchosavg 49¢ | $56.97 | $56.97 | +$0 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Nevada Wolf Packavg 50¢ | $39.46 | $38.67 | -$0.79 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Nevada Wolf Packavg 49¢ | $9.61 | $9.71 | +$0.1 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | UC Santa Barbara Gauchosavg 48¢ | $6.24 | $6.37 | +$0.13 | 18% 49-220 (269) |
Invested
$483.64
Value
$483.64
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$56.97
Value
$56.97
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$39.46
Value
$38.67
PnL
-$0.79
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$9.71
PnL
+$0.1
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$0.13
Record
18%
49-220 (269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.