Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Dakota State Bison, while the market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

North Dakota State Bison vs. Bakersfield Roadrunners

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State Bison (50%) · North Dakota State Bison at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

North Dakota State Bison49¢Bakersfield Roadrunners51¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Dakota State Bison

Consensus Traders

North Dakota State Bison 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$2.54

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 48.5¢

-13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State Bison49%

Bakersfield Roadrunners52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bakersfield Roadrunners3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,754

Combined PnL-$8.93

North Dakota State Bison3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,246

Combined PnL+$11.47

Bakersfield Roadrunners — 50%North Dakota State Bison — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State Bison 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BanfieldChris	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.85	52% 23-21 (44)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Dakota State Bisonavg 56¢	$1.5K	$853.55	+$7.56	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
SN SnakeBallCTR	North Dakota State Bisonavg 56¢	$402.35	$405.95	+$3.59	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 39¢	$110.33	$111.54	+$1.21	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 40.9¢	$26.93	$28.64	+$1.71	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 55¢	$11.55	$11.87	+$0.32	56% 8773-6961 (15734)

BanfieldChris

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$1,069.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.85

Record

52%

23-21 (44)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$1,508.99

Value

$853.55

PnL

+$7.56

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

SnakeBallCTR

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$402.35

Value

$405.95

PnL

+$3.59

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$110.33

Value

$111.54

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Flaznorp<$100

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$26.93

Value

$28.64

PnL

+$1.71

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNorth Dakota State Bison 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Dakota State Bison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Dakota State Bison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.