Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. East Carolina Pirates: O/U 151.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 39¢ · $713 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$712.64
$6.48
49.5¢ → 39¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 50.9¢ | $280.66 | $275.46 | -$5.21 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 48.3¢ | $239.53 | $248.06 | +$8.53 | 53% 1833-1635 (3468) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $129.07 | $133.23 | +$4.16 | 57% 4041-3054 (7095) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.7¢ | $41.96 | $41.42 | -$0.54 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $5.35 | $5.05 | -$0.3 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $4.95 | $4.8 | -$0.15 | 33% 307-627 (934) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.63 | $4.63 | +$0 | 14% 76-472 (548) |
Invested
$280.66
Value
$275.46
PnL
-$5.21
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
Invested
$239.53
Value
$248.06
PnL
+$8.53
Record
53%
1833-1635 (3468)
RN1CTRInvested
$129.07
Value
$133.23
PnL
+$4.16
Record
57%
4041-3054 (7095)
Invested
$41.96
Value
$41.42
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.15
Record
33%
307-627 (934)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
76-472 (548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.