Spread: East Carolina Pirates (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina Pirates (60%) · East Carolina Pirates at 55¢ · $715 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
East Carolina Pirates
5
East Carolina Pirates 60%
$715.18
$36.9
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | East Carolina Piratesavg 53.6¢ | $546.24 | $580.66 | +$34.42 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189 | East Carolina Piratesavg 55.8¢ | $110.15 | $112.61 | +$2.46 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | East Carolina Piratesavg 55.9¢ | $19.01 | $19.38 | +$0.37 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.1 | -$0.35 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 42¢ | $0.42 | $0.42 | +$0 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
Invested
$546.24
Value
$580.66
PnL
+$34.42
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$110.15
Value
$112.61
PnL
+$2.46
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$19.01
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$0.37
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.35
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.