Spread: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-16.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UNC Asheville Bulldogs (75%) · UNC Asheville Bulldogs at 96¢ · $829 held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets4¢UNC Asheville Bulldogs96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Consensus Traders

UNC Asheville Bulldogs 75%

Total Value

$828.76

Combined PnL

$27.57

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 96.5¢

+89% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUNC Asheville Bulldogs at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets4%

UNC Asheville Bulldogs96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets2 traders

Total Value$335.92

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$25.21

UNC Asheville Bulldogs6 traders

Total Value$492.84

Total Shares918

Combined PnL+$2.36

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets — 25%UNC Asheville Bulldogs — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsavg 48¢	$303.36	$328.64	+$25.28	57% 3574-2660 (6234)
FL Flaznorp	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 52¢	$349.04	$325.46	-$23.58	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
38 38791873984189<$100	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 49¢	$49.48	$54.45	+$4.97	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
RN1<$100	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 49¢	$48.9	$53.89	+$4.99	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
FE ferdinand2<$100	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 52¢	$16.38	$29.91	+$13.53	48% 2212-2378 (4590)
PA Pan9X<$100	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 49¢	$22.05	$24.3	+$2.25	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsavg 52.5¢	$7.35	$7.28	-$0.07	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FO forecastication4<$100	UNC Asheville Bulldogsavg 46¢	$4.63	$4.83	+$0.2	34% 171-339 (510)

takeormakeCTR

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Invested

$303.36

Value

$328.64

PnL

+$25.28

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

Flaznorp

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$349.04

Value

$325.46

PnL

-$23.58

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

38791873984189<$100

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$49.48

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$4.97

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

RN1<$100

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$48.9

Value

$53.89

PnL

+$4.99

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

ferdinand2<$100

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$16.38

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$13.53

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Pan9X<$100

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$22.05

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

forecastication4<$100

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.2

Record

34%

171-339 (510)

Research grade

AvoidUNC Asheville Bulldogs at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNC Asheville Bulldogs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.