Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils, while the market favors Oregon Ducks (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Oregon Ducks (-36.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (67%) · Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 50¢ · $341 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
6
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 67%
$341.12
$40.44
48.6¢ → 50¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Oregon Ducks 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 47.8¢ | $147.99 | $170.14 | +$22.15 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 50¢ | $99.3 | $109.13 | +$9.83 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Oregon Ducksavg 48¢ | $37.44 | $42.51 | +$5.07 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 46¢ | $8.28 | $9.9 | +$1.62 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 50¢ | $200 | $6.72 | +$1.2 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oregon Ducksavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.73 | +$0.58 | 35% 376-688 (1064) |
Invested
$147.99
Value
$170.14
PnL
+$22.15
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$99.3
Value
$109.13
PnL
+$9.83
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$37.44
Value
$42.51
PnL
+$5.07
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$1.62
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$200
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$1.2
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.58
Record
35%
376-688 (1064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — $170.14
HomeRunHazard
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — $109.13
VeryLucky888
Oregon Ducks — $42.51
ferdinand2
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — $9.9
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — $6.72
ameisgoat11
Oregon Ducks — $2.73