Spread: Oregon Ducks (-35.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (20%) · Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 55¢ · $866 held · ends Nov 12

Oregon Ducks45¢Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils55¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

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Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Consensus Traders

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$866.45

Combined PnL

-$3.1

Research grade

AvoidMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oregon Ducks45%

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils1 trader

Total Value$195.98

Total Shares356

Combined PnL-$3.56

Oregon Ducks4 traders

Total Value$54.28

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$0.46

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — 20%Oregon Ducks — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 52.3¢	$606.15	$616.19	+$10.05	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
└ Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils leg	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 52.3¢	$306.17	$321.75	+$15.58
└ Oregon Ducks leg	Oregon Ducksavg 45.8¢	$299.98	$294.44	-$5.53
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 56¢	$199.54	$195.98	-$3.56	49% 497-522 (1019)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 46.2¢	$25.2	$25.64	+$0.45	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 45¢	$16.96	$17.15	+$0.19	55% 205-165 (370)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 46.3¢	$6.91	$6.78	-$0.12	39% 382-610 (992)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.7	-$0.05	33% 317-631 (948)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$606.15

Value

$616.19

PnL

+$10.05

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Both legs:

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils$306.1752.3¢+$15.58

Oregon Ducks$299.9845.8¢-$5.53

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$199.54

Value

$195.98

PnL

-$3.56

Record

49%

497-522 (1019)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.64

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$16.96

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

sentrioCTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$0.12

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

Research grade

AvoidMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.