Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 57¢ · $866 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$865.79
$9.37
53¢ → 57.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.1¢ | $246.76 | $281.75 | +$34.99 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $309.35 | $269.29 | -$40.07 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 54.2¢ | $195.28 | $207 | +$11.72 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Underavg 56.4¢ | $56.44 | $57.5 | +$1.06 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $34.1 | $36.27 | +$2.17 | 11% 24-188 (212) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $14.49 | $13.99 | -$0.51 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
Invested
$246.76
Value
$281.75
PnL
+$34.99
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$309.35
Value
$269.29
PnL
-$40.07
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
Invested
$195.28
Value
$207
PnL
+$11.72
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$56.44
Value
$57.5
PnL
+$1.06
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$34.1
Value
$36.27
PnL
+$2.17
Record
11%
24-188 (212)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$14.49
Value
$13.99
PnL
-$0.51
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.