Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 39¢ · $145 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$145.25
-$21.59
Research grade
AvoidOver at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $74.73 | $74.73 | +$0 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $51 | $40 | -$11 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $20 | $19 | -$1 | 65% 175-96 (271) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $19.98 | $10.24 | -$9.74 | 42% 230-315 (545) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $1.28 | +$0.15 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
Invested
$74.73
Value
$74.73
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$51
Value
$40
PnL
-$11
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$20
Value
$19
PnL
-$1
Record
65%
175-96 (271)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$9.74
Record
42%
230-315 (545)
RN1<$100Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.