Mercyhurst Lakers vs. James Madison Dukes

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison Dukes (29%) · James Madison Dukes at 90¢ · $845 held · ends Nov 15

Mercyhurst Lakers11¢James Madison Dukes89¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

James Madison Dukes

Consensus Traders

James Madison Dukes 29%

Total Value

$844.78

Combined PnL

$11.26

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJames Madison Dukes at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison Dukes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mercyhurst Lakers11%

James Madison Dukes90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Madison Dukes2 traders

Total Value$720.19

Total Shares805

Combined PnL+$0.54

Mercyhurst Lakers5 traders

Total Value$124.59

Total Shares1,197

Combined PnL+$10.72

James Madison Dukes — 29%Mercyhurst Lakers — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on James Madison Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJames Madison Dukes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000James Madison Dukes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	James Madison Dukesavg 89.4¢	$706.14	$706.76	+$0.62	56% 679-534 (1213)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 8.9¢	$47.86	$56.2	+$8.34	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 11¢	$43.52	$41.54	-$1.98	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 8¢	$14.28	$17.85	+$3.57	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	James Madison Dukesavg 90¢	$13.5	$13.43	-$0.07	43% 867-1151 (2018)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 8¢	$3.92	$4.9	+$0.98	51% 202-192 (394)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 11¢	$4.29	$4.1	-$0.2	48% 2576-2780 (5356)

0xheavy888

James Madison Dukes

Invested

$706.14

Value

$706.76

PnL

+$0.62

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$47.86

Value

$56.2

PnL

+$8.34

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$43.52

Value

$41.54

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$14.28

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$3.57

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

ameisgoat11<$100

James Madison Dukes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.98

Record

51%

202-192 (394)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

Research grade

AvoidJames Madison Dukes at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison Dukes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on James Madison Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJames Madison Dukes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000James Madison Dukes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Madison Dukes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.