Morgan State Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 162.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$81.1
53.9¢ → 62.5¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.9¢ | $412.4 | $493.43 | +$81.03 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $374.02 | $408.35 | +$34.33 | 55% 294-243 (537) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $220 | $222.5 | +$2.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $154.02 | $185.85 | +$31.83 | |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $400 | $198 | -$2 | 82% 96-21 (117) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $100 | $112 | +$12 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $100 | $86 | -$14 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $118.48 | $44.51 | -$0.4 | 52% 836-757 (1593) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $4.15 | $4.29 | +$0.14 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
BA Bagwell306<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $1.33 | $1.65 | +$0.32 | 29% 51-126 (177) |
Invested
$412.4
Value
$493.43
PnL
+$81.03
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$374.02
Value
$408.35
PnL
+$34.33
Record
55%
294-243 (537)
Both legs:
Invested
$400
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
82%
96-21 (117)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$118.48
Value
$44.51
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
836-757 (1593)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0.14
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.32
Record
29%
51-126 (177)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.