Morgan State Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 161.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$26.38

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$821.97

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL+$41.62

Over3 traders

Total Value$530.84

Total Shares1,154

Combined PnL-$15.24

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.2¢	$706.82	$743.06	+$36.24	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$327.08	$300.84	-$14.24	56% 312-248 (560)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$450	$184	+$0	82% 97-22 (119)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$46	-$1	53% 852-766 (1618)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 49¢	$51.25	$37.39	+$4.14	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 53¢	$25.97	$27.93	+$1.96	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 56¢	$12.32	$11.88	-$0.44	55% 211-171 (382)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 63¢	$1.99	$1.71	-$0.28	51% 2763-2694 (5457)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$706.82

Value

$743.06

PnL

+$36.24

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$327.08

Value

$300.84

PnL

-$14.24

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$450

Value

$184

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$46

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$51.25

Value

$37.39

PnL

+$4.14

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$25.97

Value

$27.93

PnL

+$1.96

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$12.32

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.