Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Montana Grizzlies vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 148.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $316 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$315.72
-$0.79
45.3¢ → 47.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 52.5¢ | $206.15 | $211.3 | +$5.15 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.5¢ | $107.6 | $112.75 | +$5.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $98.55 | $98.55 | +$0 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $53.1 | $53.1 | +$0 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $36.45 | $36.45 | +$0 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $7.05 | $6.75 | -$0.3 | 26% 185-519 (704) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $6.24 | $5.85 | -$0.39 | 55% 120-97 (217) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.37 | $2.27 | -$0.1 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
Invested
$206.15
Value
$211.3
PnL
+$5.15
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.1
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$36.45
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$0.3
Record
26%
185-519 (704)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$0.39
Record
55%
120-97 (217)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.27
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.