Spread: San Francisco Dons (-11.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold San Francisco Dons (20%) · San Francisco Dons at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
San Francisco Dons
5
San Francisco Dons 20%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$10.99
Research grade
AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | San Francisco Donsavg 52¢ | $569.92 | $591.84 | +$21.92 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Montana Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $548.83 | $502.57 | -$23.5 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
| └ Montana Grizzlies leg | Montana Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $419.81 | $393.92 | -$26.35 | |
| └ San Francisco Dons leg | San Francisco Donsavg 53.6¢ | $105.79 | $108.65 | +$2.85 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Montana Grizzliesavg 47.8¢ | $71.52 | $67.32 | -$4.2 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Montana Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $70.56 | $64.68 | -$5.88 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Montana Grizzliesavg 47¢ | $18.06 | $17.29 | -$0.77 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Montana Grizzliesavg 46¢ | $3.72 | $3.64 | -$0.08 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
Invested
$569.92
Value
$591.84
PnL
+$21.92
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
Invested
$548.83
Value
$502.57
PnL
-$23.5
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.52
Value
$67.32
PnL
-$4.2
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$70.56
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$5.88
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$18.06
Value
$17.29
PnL
-$0.77
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$3.72
Value
$3.64
PnL
-$0.08
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.