Montana Grizzlies vs. San Francisco Dons

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold San Francisco Dons (100%) · San Francisco Dons at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Montana Grizzlies40¢San Francisco Dons60¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

San Francisco Dons

Consensus Traders

San Francisco Dons 100%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$11.73

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 60.5¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Francisco Dons

3 of 3 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Montana Grizzlies40%

San Francisco Dons61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Francisco Dons3 traders

Total Value$395.89

Total Shares575

Combined PnL-$11.73

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Francisco Dons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000San Francisco Dons 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 75.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$53.76	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ San Francisco Dons leg	San Francisco Donsavg 75.6¢	$922.38	$738.21	-$204.9
└ Montana Grizzlies leg	Montana Grizzliesavg 30.8¢	$535.9	$687.03	+$151.14
RN1ARB<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 65.9¢	$738.75	$820.84	+$82.09	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ San Francisco Dons leg	San Francisco Donsavg 65.9¢	$593.27	$603.04	+$9.77
└ Montana Grizzlies leg	Montana Grizzliesavg 22¢	$145.48	$217.8	+$72.32
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 86.3¢	$287.51	$370.61	+$83.11	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
└ Montana Grizzlies leg	Montana Grizzliesavg 13¢	$85.76	$213.93	+$128.17
└ San Francisco Dons leg	San Francisco Donsavg 86.3¢	$201.75	$156.68	-$45.06
38 38791873984189	San Francisco Donsavg 68¢	$356.4	$324.51	-$5.76	48% 969-1052 (2021)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 73¢	$256.56	$263.73	+$7.16	56% 504-395 (899)
└ San Francisco Dons leg	San Francisco Donsavg 73¢	$229.86	$210.97	-$18.89
└ Montana Grizzlies leg	Montana Grizzliesavg 16.7¢	$26.7	$52.76	+$26.06
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 67¢	$119.06	$144.48	+$25.42	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
└ Montana Grizzlies leg	Montana Grizzliesavg 22.1¢	$51.84	$77.26	+$25.42
└ San Francisco Dons leg	San Francisco Donsavg 67¢	$67.22	$67.22	+$0
PA Pan9X<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 68.4¢	$96.32	$68.03	-$4.98	49% 450-474 (924)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	San Francisco Donsavg 87¢	$4.35	$3.35	-$1	26% 185-522 (707)

takeormakeARB<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$1,557.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$53.76

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

San Francisco Dons$922.3875.6¢-$204.9

Montana Grizzlies$535.930.8¢+$151.14

RN1ARB<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$738.75

Value

$820.84

PnL

+$82.09

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

San Francisco Dons$593.2765.9¢+$9.77

Montana Grizzlies$145.4822¢+$72.32

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$287.51

Value

$370.61

PnL

+$83.11

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Both legs:

Montana Grizzlies$85.7613¢+$128.17

San Francisco Dons$201.7586.3¢-$45.06

38791873984189

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$356.4

Value

$324.51

PnL

-$5.76

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$256.56

Value

$263.73

PnL

+$7.16

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

San Francisco Dons$229.8673¢-$18.89

Montana Grizzlies$26.716.7¢+$26.06

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$119.06

Value

$144.48

PnL

+$25.42

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Both legs:

Montana Grizzlies$51.8422.1¢+$25.42

San Francisco Dons$67.2267¢+$0

Pan9X<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$96.32

Value

$68.03

PnL

-$4.98

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ameisgoat11<$100

San Francisco Dons

Invested

$4.35

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$1

Record

26%

185-522 (707)

Research grade

AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

San Francisco Dons

3 of 3 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Francisco Dons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000San Francisco Dons 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Francisco Dons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.