Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Quinnipiac Bobcats, while the market favors Monmouth Hawks (53%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Quinnipiac Bobcats (-1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Quinnipiac Bobcats (86%) · Quinnipiac Bobcats at 48¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 13

Quinnipiac Bobcats48¢Monmouth Hawks52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Consensus Traders

Quinnipiac Bobcats 86%

Total Value

$55.39

Combined PnL

$1.95

Research grade

AvoidQuinnipiac Bobcats at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Quinnipiac Bobcats

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Monmouth Hawks 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Quinnipiac Bobcats48%

Monmouth Hawks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Quinnipiac Bobcats6 traders

Total Value$45.69

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$2.05

Monmouth Hawks1 trader

Total Value$9.7

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.1

Quinnipiac Bobcats — 86%Monmouth Hawks — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Quinnipiac Bobcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrQuinnipiac Bobcats 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Quinnipiac Bobcats 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 46¢	$18.59	$19.8	+$1.21	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 48¢	$11.5	$11.02	-$0.48	56% 312-248 (560)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Monmouth Hawksavg 51¢	$9.8	$9.7	-$0.1	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 47¢	$72.87	$8.43	+$1.56	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 47¢	$3.29	$3.22	-$0.07	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.3	-$0.15	38% 509-821 (1330)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 50¢	$600	$0.92	-$0.02	82% 97-22 (119)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$18.59

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$1.21

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.02

PnL

-$0.48

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$72.87

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$1.56

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$600

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.02

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

Research grade

AvoidQuinnipiac Bobcats at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Quinnipiac Bobcats

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Monmouth Hawks 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Quinnipiac Bobcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrQuinnipiac Bobcats 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Quinnipiac Bobcats 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Quinnipiac Bobcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.