Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Missouri Tigers, while the market favors Marquette Golden Eagles (63%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Missouri Tigers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri Tigers (88%) · Missouri Tigers at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Missouri Tigers38¢Marquette Golden Eagles62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Missouri Tigers

Consensus Traders

Missouri Tigers 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$0.12

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 37.5¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMissouri Tigers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri Tigers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Marquette Golden Eagles 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Missouri Tigers38%

Marquette Golden Eagles63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Missouri Tigers7 traders

Total Value$397.26

Total Shares934

Combined PnL-$0.81

Marquette Golden Eagles1 trader

Total Value$51.71

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$0.93

Missouri Tigers — 88%Marquette Golden Eagles — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$6.8	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
└ Marquette Golden Eagles leg	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$64.55
└ Missouri Tigers leg	Missouri Tigersavg 44¢	$447.04	$381	-$71.35
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 56.5¢	$1.1K	$744.64	+$62.21	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
└ Marquette Golden Eagles leg	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 56.5¢	$412.63	$456.64	+$75.27
└ Missouri Tigers leg	Missouri Tigersavg 39.2¢	$301.06	$288	-$13.06
SN SnakeBallCTR	Missouri Tigersavg 42¢	$292.16	$292.16	+$0	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 42.5¢	$121.67	$122.67	+$1	47% 376-418 (794)
└ Missouri Tigers leg	Missouri Tigersavg 42.5¢	$85	$84	-$1
└ Marquette Golden Eagles leg	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 55¢	$36.67	$38.67	+$2
RN1CTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 41¢	$60.99	$62.12	+$1.13	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 40.5¢	$54.8	$56.8	+$2	83% 991-206 (1197)
└ Missouri Tigers leg	Missouri Tigersavg 40.5¢	$32.4	$33.6	+$1.2
└ Marquette Golden Eagles leg	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 56¢	$22.4	$23.2	+$0.8
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 53.3¢	$50.78	$51.71	+$0.93	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 44¢	$20.24	$19.55	-$0.69	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 44¢	$9.7	$9.37	-$0.33	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 44¢	$6.6	$6.38	-$0.22	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 45¢	$5.97	$5.57	-$0.4	56% 679-534 (1213)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Missouri Tigersavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.1	-$0.3	43% 867-1151 (2018)

takeormakeARB<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$1,602.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$6.8

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Both legs:

Marquette Golden Eagles$1,077.3259¢+$64.55

Missouri Tigers$447.0444¢-$71.35

FlaznorpARB<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$1,103.95

Value

$744.64

PnL

+$62.21

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Both legs:

Marquette Golden Eagles$412.6356.5¢+$75.27

Missouri Tigers$301.0639.2¢-$13.06

SnakeBallCTR

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$292.16

Value

$292.16

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$121.67

Value

$122.67

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

Both legs:

Missouri Tigers$8542.5¢-$1

Marquette Golden Eagles$36.6755¢+$2

RN1CTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$60.99

Value

$62.12

PnL

+$1.13

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$54.8

Value

$56.8

PnL

+$2

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

Both legs:

Missouri Tigers$32.440.5¢+$1.2

Marquette Golden Eagles$22.456¢+$0.8

HomeRunHazard<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$50.78

Value

$51.71

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$20.24

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.37

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$0.4

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Missouri Tigers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidMissouri Tigers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Missouri Tigers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Marquette Golden Eagles 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Missouri Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.