Michigan Wolverines vs. Connecticut Huskies

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Connecticut Huskies (85%) · Connecticut Huskies at 73¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Michigan Wolverines28¢Connecticut Huskies72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Connecticut Huskies

Consensus Traders

Connecticut Huskies 85%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$44.82

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 72.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidConnecticut Huskies at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Connecticut Huskies

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michigan Wolverines28%

Connecticut Huskies73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Connecticut Huskies11 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares11,906

Combined PnL+$42.62

Michigan Wolverines2 traders

Total Value$337.76

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL+$2.2

Connecticut Huskies — 85%Michigan Wolverines — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Connecticut Huskies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleConnecticut Huskies 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpConnecticut Huskies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrConnecticut Huskies 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedConnecticut Huskies 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Connecticut Huskies 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Connecticut Huskiesavg 72.5¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$32.89	54% 18312-15410 (33722)
HI hi774c	Connecticut Huskiesavg 72.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$5.2	46% 5257-6102 (11359)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	Michigan Wolverinesavg 27.3¢	$334.29	$336.41	+$2.12	44% 72-92 (164)
FL Flaznorp	Connecticut Huskiesavg 74.1¢	$260.98	$257.2	+$1.76	51% 26515-25136 (51651)
0xheavy888	Connecticut Huskiesavg 72¢	$239.76	$243.09	+$3.33	56% 8112-6431 (14543)
RollAwayTheDew	Connecticut Huskiesavg 73¢	$237.6	$237.58	-$0.03	54% 531-448 (979)
nigiri99	Connecticut Huskiesavg 73¢	$189.8	$189.8	-$0	46% 8690-10364 (19054)
VeryLucky888	Connecticut Huskiesavg 72.5¢	$145	$146	+$1	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
SE sentrio<$100	Connecticut Huskiesavg 74¢	$70.77	$69.82	-$0.96	50% 26140-25802 (51942)
wowfarm<$100	Connecticut Huskiesavg 74¢	$59.19	$58.4	-$0.79	71% 4951-1988 (6939)
PA Pan9X<$100	Connecticut Huskiesavg 72.3¢	$18.8	$18.98	+$0.18	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
38 38791873984189<$100	Connecticut Huskiesavg 74¢	$7.01	$5.22	+$0.04	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Michigan Wolverinesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.35	+$0.08	52% 8861-8048 (16909)

HomeRunHazard

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$4,527.41

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$32.89

Record

54%

18312-15410 (33722)

hi774c

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$2,899.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$5.2

Record

46%

5257-6102 (11359)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$334.29

Value

$336.41

PnL

+$2.12

Record

44%

72-92 (164)

Flaznorp

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$260.98

Value

$257.2

PnL

+$1.76

Record

51%

26515-25136 (51651)

0xheavy888

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$239.76

Value

$243.09

PnL

+$3.33

Record

56%

8112-6431 (14543)

RollAwayTheDew

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$237.6

Value

$237.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

531-448 (979)

nigiri99

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$189.8

Value

$189.8

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

8690-10364 (19054)

VeryLucky888

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$145

Value

$146

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

sentrio<$100

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$70.77

Value

$69.82

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

26140-25802 (51942)

wowfarm<$100

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$59.19

Value

$58.4

PnL

-$0.79

Record

71%

4951-1988 (6939)

Pan9X<$100

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$18.8

Value

$18.98

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

38791873984189<$100

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$7.01

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

8861-8048 (16909)

Research grade

AvoidConnecticut Huskies at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Connecticut Huskies

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Connecticut Huskies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleConnecticut Huskies 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpConnecticut Huskies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrConnecticut Huskies 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedConnecticut Huskies 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Connecticut Huskies 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Connecticut Huskies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.