Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Miami (OH) RedHawks, while the market favors Evansville Purple Aces (72%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-8.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) RedHawks (50%) · Miami (OH) RedHawks at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Miami (OH) RedHawks28¢Evansville Purple Aces72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) RedHawks 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$20.61

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 28.5¢

-47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMiami (OH) RedHawks at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH) RedHawks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Evansville Purple Aces 72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH) RedHawks28%

Evansville Purple Aces72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Evansville Purple Aces3 traders

Total Value$207.14

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$21.36

Miami (OH) RedHawks3 traders

Total Value$166.48

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$0.75

Evansville Purple Aces — 50%Miami (OH) RedHawks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH) RedHawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) RedHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) RedHawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 53.9¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	+$23.54	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Miami (OH) RedHawks leg	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 53.9¢	$545.46	$546.65	+$12.02
└ Evansville Purple Aces leg	Evansville Purple Acesavg 44.9¢	$464.11	$475.64	+$11.52
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 55¢	$672.66	$666	-$6.66	54% 503-422 (925)
└ Miami (OH) RedHawks leg	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 55¢	$366.3	$366.3	+$0
└ Evansville Purple Aces leg	Evansville Purple Acesavg 46¢	$306.36	$299.7	-$6.66
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Evansville Purple Acesavg 50¢	$5.4K	$200	+$0	69% 133-60 (193)
└ Miami (OH) RedHawks leg	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 50¢	$100	$110	+$10
└ Evansville Purple Aces leg	Evansville Purple Acesavg 50¢	$100	$90	-$10
38 38791873984189	Evansville Purple Acesavg 50.3¢	$373.04	$124.07	+$18.75	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 54¢	$110.94	$109.92	-$1.03	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Evansville Purple Acesavg 44¢	$48.42	$49.52	+$1.1	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9X<$100	Evansville Purple Acesavg 57.8¢	$48.56	$33.55	+$1.51	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 54¢	$46.12	$32.56	+$0.74	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Miami (OH) RedHawksavg 56¢	$24.46	$24	-$0.46	54% 286-244 (530)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Invested

$1,515.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.54

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Miami (OH) RedHawks$545.4653.9¢+$12.02

Evansville Purple Aces$464.1144.9¢+$11.52

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Invested

$672.66

Value

$666

PnL

-$6.66

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

Both legs:

Miami (OH) RedHawks$366.355¢+$0

Evansville Purple Aces$306.3646¢-$6.66

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Evansville Purple Aces

Invested

$5,400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Both legs:

Miami (OH) RedHawks$10050¢+$10

Evansville Purple Aces$10050¢-$10

38791873984189

Evansville Purple Aces

Invested

$373.04

Value

$124.07

PnL

+$18.75

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Invested

$110.94

Value

$109.92

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Evansville Purple Aces

Invested

$48.42

Value

$49.52

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9X<$100

Evansville Purple Aces

Invested

$48.56

Value

$33.55

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Invested

$46.12

Value

$32.56

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Invested

$24.46

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

AvoidMiami (OH) RedHawks at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH) RedHawks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Evansville Purple Aces 72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH) RedHawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) RedHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) RedHawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) RedHawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.