Spread: West Virginia Mountaineers (-27.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mercer Bears (38%) · Mercer Bears at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

West Virginia Mountaineers46¢Mercer Bears54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mercer Bears

Consensus Traders

Mercer Bears 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$23.27

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 54.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMercer Bears at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mercer Bears

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

West Virginia Mountaineers46%

Mercer Bears55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mercer Bears3 traders

Total Value$859.48

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL+$43.98

West Virginia Mountaineers5 traders

Total Value$483.87

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL-$20.71

Mercer Bears — 38%West Virginia Mountaineers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Mercer Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mercer Bears) and the top 1000 (7 on West Virginia Mountaineers) disagree here.

ctrWest Virginia Mountaineers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMercer Bears 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia Mountaineers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Mercer Bearsavg 51.5¢	$782.25	$827.71	+$45.46	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
HI hi774cCTR	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 48¢	$210	$199.06	-$10.94	19% 126-532 (658)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 50¢	$666	$148.57	-$5.23	83% 93-19 (112)
FL FlaznorpCTR	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 47¢	$112.88	$109.28	-$3.6	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 47¢	$25.5	$24.69	-$0.81	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Mercer Bearsavg 51¢	$17.34	$18.53	+$1.19	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
VeryLucky888	Mercer Bearsavg 52.5¢	$112.67	$13.24	-$2.67	52% 761-712 (1473)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.28	-$0.13	38% 487-808 (1295)

HomeRunHazard

Mercer Bears

Invested

$782.25

Value

$827.71

PnL

+$45.46

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

hi774cCTR

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$210

Value

$199.06

PnL

-$10.94

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$666

Value

$148.57

PnL

-$5.23

Record

83%

93-19 (112)

FlaznorpCTR

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$112.88

Value

$109.28

PnL

-$3.6

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

sentrioCTR<$100

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$25.5

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$0.81

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2<$100

Mercer Bears

Invested

$17.34

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$1.19

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

VeryLucky888

Mercer Bears

Invested

$112.67

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$2.67

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

38%

487-808 (1295)

Research grade

AvoidMercer Bears at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mercer Bears

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Mercer Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mercer Bears) and the top 1000 (7 on West Virginia Mountaineers) disagree here.

ctrWest Virginia Mountaineers 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMercer Bears 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia Mountaineers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mercer Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.