Mercer Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold West Virginia Mountaineers (57%) · West Virginia Mountaineers at 98¢ · $825 held · ends Nov 13

Mercer Bears2¢West Virginia Mountaineers98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

West Virginia Mountaineers

Consensus Traders

West Virginia Mountaineers 57%

Total Value

$825

Combined PnL

-$0.04

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia Mountaineers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia Mountaineers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mercer Bears2%

West Virginia Mountaineers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia Mountaineers4 traders

Total Value$783.91

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$27.12

Mercer Bears3 traders

Total Value$41.02

Total Shares820

Combined PnL+$27.09

West Virginia Mountaineers — 57%Mercer Bears — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 98.3¢	$648.77	$626.99	-$21.78	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
SE sentrio	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 98.3¢	$149.89	$144.86	-$5.03	41% 490-712 (1202)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Mercer Bearsavg 1.7¢	$11.22	$33	+$21.78	16% 97-512 (609)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Mercer Bearsavg 1.7¢	$2.67	$7.85	+$5.18	42% 130-180 (310)
FO forecastication4<$100	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 97¢	$7.93	$7.77	-$0.16	25% 83-251 (334)
38 38791873984189<$100	West Virginia Mountaineersavg 98.3¢	$4.44	$4.29	-$0.15	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mercer Bearsavg 1.3¢	$0.04	$0.17	+$0.13	47% 394-451 (845)

Flaznorp

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$648.77

Value

$626.99

PnL

-$21.78

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

sentrio

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$149.89

Value

$144.86

PnL

-$5.03

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

hi774cCTR<$100

Mercer Bears

Invested

$11.22

Value

$33

PnL

+$21.78

Record

16%

97-512 (609)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Mercer Bears

Invested

$2.67

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$5.18

Record

42%

130-180 (310)

forecastication4<$100

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$0.16

Record

25%

83-251 (334)

38791873984189<$100

West Virginia Mountaineers

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mercer Bears

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia Mountaineers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia Mountaineers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Virginia Mountaineers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.