Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Rhode Island Rams: O/U 141.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 65¢ · $446 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 14%
$446.44
-$0.44
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55.2¢ | $240.37 | $272.15 | +$31.78 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $149.85 | $124.88 | -$24.98 | 55% 294-243 (537) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43.9¢ | $46.92 | $40.04 | -$6.87 | 52% 836-757 (1593) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $3.79 | $3.84 | +$0.05 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $1.88 | -$0.48 | 38% 507-819 (1326) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $1.88 | +$0.02 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $1.76 | $1.78 | +$0.02 | 49% 1338-1368 (2706) |
Invested
$240.37
Value
$272.15
PnL
+$31.78
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$149.85
Value
$124.88
PnL
-$24.98
Record
55%
294-243 (537)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.92
Value
$40.04
PnL
-$6.87
Record
52%
836-757 (1593)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$3.84
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.48
Record
38%
507-819 (1326)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
1338-1368 (2706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.