Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rhode Island Rams, while the market favors Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rhode Island Rams (-24.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rhode Island Rams (75%) · Rhode Island Rams at 45¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Rhode Island Rams
4
Rhode Island Rams 75%
1 arb excluded
$265.1
-$5.95
Research grade
AvoidRhode Island Rams at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Rhode Island Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 50¢ | $800 | $198 | -$2 | 82% 96-21 (117) |
| └ Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks leg | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 50¢ | $100 | $114 | +$14 | |
| └ Rhode Island Rams leg | Rhode Island Ramsavg 50¢ | $100 | $84 | -$16 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 49¢ | $49 | $41.19 | -$6.92 | 52% 836-757 (1593) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 50.1¢ | $13.52 | $15.39 | +$1.87 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 48¢ | $7.2 | $6.3 | -$0.9 | 38% 507-819 (1326) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 42¢ | $4.23 | $4.23 | +$0 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
Invested
$800
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
82%
96-21 (117)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$49
Value
$41.19
PnL
-$6.92
Record
52%
836-757 (1593)
Invested
$13.52
Value
$15.39
PnL
+$1.87
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.9
Record
38%
507-819 (1326)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.