Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Boston College Eagles
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Boston College Eagles (60%) · Boston College Eagles at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Boston College Eagles
5
Boston College Eagles 60%
$1.7K
$1.42
98.6¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBoston College Eagles at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Boston College Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Boston College Eaglesavg 98.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$15.41 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Boston College Eaglesavg 98.3¢ | $98.3 | $98.7 | +$0.4 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Boston College Eaglesavg 98.3¢ | $5.9 | $5.92 | +$0.02 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 1.5¢ | $14.06 | $4.69 | -$9.37 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Maryland Eastern Shore Hawksavg 1.3¢ | $8.06 | $3.02 | -$5.04 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,540.55
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.41
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$98.3
Value
$98.7
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.92
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$9.37
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$8.06
Value
$3.02
PnL
-$5.04
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.