Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Massachusetts Minutemen (60%) · Massachusetts Minutemen at 77¢ · $470 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Massachusetts Minutemen
5
Massachusetts Minutemen 60%
$469.6
$9.86
84.3¢ → 76.5¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMassachusetts Minutemen at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Massachusetts Minutemen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Massachusetts Minutemenavg 85¢ | $294.07 | $281.45 | -$12.62 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawksavg 20¢ | $126.87 | $149.01 | +$22.14 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Massachusetts Minutemenavg 79.4¢ | $31.18 | $30.66 | -$0.53 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Massachusetts Minutemenavg 81¢ | $5.2 | $5 | -$0.2 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawksavg 16¢ | $2.42 | $3.48 | +$1.06 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
Invested
$294.07
Value
$281.45
PnL
-$12.62
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$126.87
Value
$149.01
PnL
+$22.14
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$31.18
Value
$30.66
PnL
-$0.53
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$3.48
PnL
+$1.06
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.