Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan Wolverines (57%) · Michigan Wolverines at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Michigan Wolverines60¢Marquette Golden Eagles40¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Michigan Wolverines

Consensus Traders

Michigan Wolverines 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$151.19

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 60¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMichigan Wolverines at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan Wolverines

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michigan Wolverines60%

Marquette Golden Eagles40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan Wolverines4 traders

Total Value$833.03

Total Shares1,376

Combined PnL+$156.53

Marquette Golden Eagles3 traders

Total Value$46.13

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$5.35

Michigan Wolverines — 57%Marquette Golden Eagles — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Michigan Wolverines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichigan Wolverines 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan Wolverines 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan Wolverines 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Michigan Wolverinesavg 49.9¢	$623.72	$768.74	+$145.02	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 50¢	$1.2K	$742.21	+$66.15	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Marquette Golden Eagles leg	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 50¢	$610.58	$525.04	-$85.54
└ Michigan Wolverines leg	Michigan Wolverinesavg 42.1¢	$160.39	$217.17	+$151.69
VeryLucky888	Michigan Wolverinesavg 42.5¢	$155.68	$51	+$9.84	52% 497-452 (949)
RN1CTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 54¢	$40.56	$36.05	-$4.51	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
SE sentrio<$100	Michigan Wolverinesavg 44¢	$7.07	$8.2	+$1.12	39% 394-619 (1013)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.2	-$0.3	49% 692-733 (1425)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Michigan Wolverinesavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$5.1	+$0.55	34% 327-634 (961)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 57¢	$3.42	$2.88	-$0.54	48% 1427-1570 (2997)

takeormake

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$623.72

Value

$768.74

PnL

+$145.02

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$1,219.71

Value

$742.21

PnL

+$66.15

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Marquette Golden Eagles$610.5850¢-$85.54

Michigan Wolverines$160.3942.1¢+$151.69

VeryLucky888

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$155.68

Value

$51

PnL

+$9.84

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

RN1CTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$40.56

Value

$36.05

PnL

-$4.51

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

sentrio<$100

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$7.07

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.12

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ameisgoat11<$100

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.55

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$3.42

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Research grade

AvoidMichigan Wolverines at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan Wolverines

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Michigan Wolverines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMichigan Wolverines 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan Wolverines 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Michigan Wolverines 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan Wolverines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.