Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan Wolverines (60%) · Michigan Wolverines at 51¢ · $582 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Michigan Wolverines
5
Michigan Wolverines 60%
$582.01
$11.26
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMichigan Wolverines at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Michigan Wolverinesavg 50¢ | $505.73 | $515.98 | +$10.26 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Michigan Wolverinesavg 50¢ | $50 | $48 | +$1 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 49¢ | $12.59 | $12.59 | +$0 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 49¢ | $2.88 | $2.88 | -$0 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Michigan Wolverinesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$505.73
Value
$515.98
PnL
+$10.26
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50
Value
$48
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$12.59
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.