Maine Black Bears vs. Rhode Island Rams
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rhode Island Rams (80%) · Rhode Island Rams at 82¢ · $844 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Rhode Island Rams
5
Rhode Island Rams 80%
$844.19
-$134.74
95.8¢ → 81.8¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRhode Island Rams at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Rhode Island Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 96.1¢ | $836.07 | $711.66 | -$124.41 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 96.3¢ | $59.71 | $50.72 | -$8.99 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Maine Black Bearsavg 3.6¢ | $46.36 | $47.07 | +$0.71 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 87.6¢ | $40.71 | $26.57 | -$0.63 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Rhode Island Ramsavg 96.1¢ | $9.6 | $8.17 | -$1.43 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
nigiri99Invested
$836.07
Value
$711.66
PnL
-$124.41
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$59.71
Value
$50.72
PnL
-$8.99
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$46.36
Value
$47.07
PnL
+$0.71
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$40.71
Value
$26.57
PnL
-$0.63
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$8.17
PnL
-$1.43
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.