Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzaga Bulldogs (83%) · Gonzaga Bulldogs at 84¢ · $57 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Gonzaga Bulldogs
6
Gonzaga Bulldogs 83%
$57.13
-$5.42
Research grade
AvoidGonzaga Bulldogs at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Gonzaga Bulldogs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 42¢ | $31.25 | $26.04 | -$5.21 | 54% 1497-1295 (2792) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 35¢ | $21.52 | $21.52 | +$0 | 49% 4087-4288 (8375) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | LSU Tigersavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.8 | +$0.2 | 56% 3699-2861 (6560) |
 RN1<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 35¢ | $2.02 | $2.57 | +$0.55 | 55% 5474-4481 (9955) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 43¢ | $3.01 | $2.45 | -$0.56 | 50% 1636-1654 (3290) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.75 | -$0.4 | 41% 706-1015 (1721) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$31.25
Value
$26.04
PnL
-$5.21
Record
54%
1497-1295 (2792)
Invested
$21.52
Value
$21.52
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
4087-4288 (8375)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
3699-2861 (6560)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.02
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
5474-4481 (9955)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
1636-1654 (3290)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.4
Record
41%
706-1015 (1721)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.