Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans: O/U 145.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 54¢ · $995 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
$995.25
-$11.53
54.3¢ → 54¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55.7¢ | $443.98 | $432.55 | -$11.43 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 52.6¢ | $317.93 | $326.15 | +$8.22 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $237.85 | $229.53 | -$8.32 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $7.02 | $7.02 | +$0 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$443.98
Value
$432.55
PnL
-$11.43
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$317.93
Value
$326.15
PnL
+$8.22
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$237.85
Value
$229.53
PnL
-$8.32
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.