Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Loyola Marymount Lions (44%) · Loyola Marymount Lions at 81¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Loyola Marymount Lions
9
Loyola Marymount Lions 44%
$2.8K
-$405.98
65.5¢ → 80.5¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLoyola Marymount Lions at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 63.2¢ | $765.19 | $878.49 | +$113.3 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 RN1 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 65.1¢ | $708.24 | $757.77 | +$49.53 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Troy Trojansavg 48¢ | $868.87 | $470.61 | -$398.26 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 71.5¢ | $376.86 | $341.3 | -$31.02 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Troy Trojansavg 27.2¢ | $169.32 | $121.27 | -$48.04 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Loyola Marymount Lionsavg 71.5¢ | $90.79 | $93.98 | +$3.19 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Troy Trojansavg 29.6¢ | $126.9 | $83.51 | -$43.39 | 28% 274-715 (989) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Troy Trojansavg 27.2¢ | $69.18 | $49.64 | -$19.54 | 28% 278-729 (1007) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Troy Trojansavg 49¢ | $67.62 | $35.88 | -$31.74 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
Invested
$765.19
Value
$878.49
PnL
+$113.3
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
RN1Invested
$708.24
Value
$757.77
PnL
+$49.53
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$868.87
Value
$470.61
PnL
-$398.26
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$376.86
Value
$341.3
PnL
-$31.02
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$169.32
Value
$121.27
PnL
-$48.04
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
Invested
$90.79
Value
$93.98
PnL
+$3.19
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$126.9
Value
$83.51
PnL
-$43.39
Record
28%
274-715 (989)
Invested
$69.18
Value
$49.64
PnL
-$19.54
Record
28%
278-729 (1007)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$67.62
Value
$35.88
PnL
-$31.74
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Loyola Marymount Lions — $878.49
RN1
Loyola Marymount Lions — $757.77
HomeRunHazard
CTRTroy Trojans — $470.61
38791873984189
Loyola Marymount Lions — $341.3
MadridTime
CTRTroy Trojans — $121.27
Pan9X
Loyola Marymount Lions — $93.98
LightParadox
CTRTroy Trojans — $83.51
Venusian
CTRTroy Trojans — $49.64
nigiri99
CTRTroy Trojans — $35.88