Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold South Alabama Jaguars, while the market favors Loyola Marymount Lions (54%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: South Alabama Jaguars (-1.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama Jaguars (100%) · South Alabama Jaguars at 46¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 13

South Alabama Jaguars46¢Loyola Marymount Lions54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

South Alabama Jaguars

Consensus Traders

South Alabama Jaguars 100%

Total Value

$192.49

Combined PnL

$2.17

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 46¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouth Alabama Jaguars at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama Jaguars

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Loyola Marymount Lions 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Alabama Jaguars46%

Loyola Marymount Lions54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Alabama Jaguars6 traders

Total Value$192.49

Total Shares416

Combined PnL+$2.17

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 45¢	$60.3	$60.3	+$0	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
38 38791873984189CTR	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 45.7¢	$229.35	$47.95	+$4.21	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢	$42.24	$39.6	-$2.64	44% 170-217 (387)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 44¢	$33.88	$34.65	+$0.77	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 46¢	$6.95	$6.85	-$0.1	38% 507-819 (1326)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 46¢	$3.22	$3.15	-$0.07	49% 1097-1151 (2248)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$60.3

Value

$60.3

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

38791873984189CTR

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$229.35

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$4.21

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$42.24

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$2.64

Record

44%

170-217 (387)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$33.88

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

507-819 (1326)

Pan9XCTR<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$3.22

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

Research grade

AvoidSouth Alabama Jaguars at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama Jaguars

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Loyola Marymount Lions 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Alabama Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.