Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 152.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 10¢ · $218 held · ended Nov 14

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$218.26

Combined PnL

-$44.15

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 10¢

-77% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$79.8

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$0.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$138.46

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$45

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Underavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$76.65	+$0.35	94% 124-8 (132)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$104.2	$70.54	-$33.67	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$45.93	$46.16	+$0.23	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$33.32	$21.76	-$11.56	45% 268-322 (590)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.15	+$0.5	41% 705-1014 (1719)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Under

Invested

$76.31

Value

$76.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

94%

124-8 (132)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$104.2

Value

$70.54

PnL

-$33.67

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.93

Value

$46.16

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.32

Value

$21.76

PnL

-$11.56

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.