Louisville Cardinals vs. Memphis Tigers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Louisville Cardinals (56%) · Louisville Cardinals at 93¢ · $627 held · ended Nov 15

Louisville Cardinals93¢Memphis Tigers7¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Louisville Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Louisville Cardinals 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$626.51

Combined PnL

$6.86

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 92.8¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLouisville Cardinals at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville Cardinals

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Louisville Cardinals93%

Memphis Tigers7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisville Cardinals5 traders

Total Value$190.22

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$0.31

Memphis Tigers4 traders

Total Value$78.15

Total Shares469

Combined PnL+$7.17

Louisville Cardinals — 56%Memphis Tigers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Louisville Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Louisville Cardinals 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 50¢	$2.4K	$190.08	-$1.92	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Louisville Cardinals leg	Louisville Cardinalsavg 50¢	$96	$151.68	+$55.68
└ Memphis Tigers leg	Memphis Tigersavg 50¢	$96	$38.4	-$57.6
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 93.7¢	$144.94	$168.06	+$30.75	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
└ Louisville Cardinals leg	Louisville Cardinalsavg 93.7¢	$120.85	$119.63	-$1.22
└ Memphis Tigers leg	Memphis Tigersavg 3.1¢	$20.71	$48.43	+$31.97
TH thirdt1me<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 97¢	$97	$96.5	-$0.5	47% 375-417 (792)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 78¢	$71.13	$71.09	-$0.04	47% 1204-1382 (2586)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 20¢	$41.91	$44.27	+$2.36	26% 249-694 (943)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 5.2¢	$21.05	$17.98	+$6.13	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 22¢	$15.62	$14.2	-$1.42	44% 339-425 (764)
PA Pan9X<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 79¢	$10.73	$10.89	+$0.15	50% 2195-2200 (4395)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 78¢	$7.02	$7.11	+$0.09	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.64	-$0.01	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 3.2¢	$1.6	$1.7	+$0.1	53% 7542-6645 (14187)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$2,353

Value

$190.08

PnL

-$1.92

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Louisville Cardinals$9650¢+$55.68

Memphis Tigers$9650¢-$57.6

FlaznorpARB<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$144.94

Value

$168.06

PnL

+$30.75

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

Both legs:

Louisville Cardinals$120.8593.7¢-$1.22

Memphis Tigers$20.713.1¢+$31.97

thirdt1me<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$97

Value

$96.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

47%

375-417 (792)

SnakeBall<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$71.13

Value

$71.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1204-1382 (2586)

hi774cCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$41.91

Value

$44.27

PnL

+$2.36

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$21.05

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$6.13

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$15.62

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$1.42

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

Pan9X<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$10.73

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

2195-2200 (4395)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

ferdinand2<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7542-6645 (14187)

Research grade

AvoidLouisville Cardinals at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville Cardinals

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Louisville Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Louisville Cardinals 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisville Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.0%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.