Longwood Lancers vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: O/U 136.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$7.5

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 76¢

+44% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$873.91

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL+$117.45

Under6 traders

Total Value$519.96

Total Shares1,369

Combined PnL-$124.94

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879	Overavg 53.7¢	$392.26	$507.87	+$115.61	— 9-9 (18)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52¢	$358.37	$358.39	+$0.02	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$378.17	$239.42	-$138.75	45% 268-322 (590)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 46¢	$152.19	$158.81	+$6.62	59% 506-349 (855)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$57.96	$60.48	+$2.52	36% 115-204 (319)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$44.65	$45.6	+$0.95	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$61.22	$13.25	+$3.72	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.83	$7.65	+$1.82	54% 286-244 (530)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	41% 705-1014 (1719)

0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879

Over

Invested

$392.26

Value

$507.87

PnL

+$115.61

Record

—

9-9 (18)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$358.37

Value

$358.39

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$378.17

Value

$239.42

PnL

-$138.75

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$152.19

Value

$158.81

PnL

+$6.62

Record

59%

506-349 (855)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.96

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$2.52

Record

36%

115-204 (319)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.65

Value

$45.6

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.22

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$3.72

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$5.83

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$1.82

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.