Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Villanova Wildcats, while the market favors La Salle Explorers (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Villanova Wildcats (-23.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Villanova Wildcats (80%) · Villanova Wildcats at 49¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Villanova Wildcats
5
Villanova Wildcats 80%
$97.19
$3.58
Research grade
AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors La Salle Explorers 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Villanova Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 46¢ | $69 | $72 | +$3 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 46.3¢ | $15.14 | $15.7 | +$0.55 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | $5.15 | +$0 | 23% 149-494 (643) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.43 | +$0.02 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 48¢ | $1.92 | $1.92 | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
Invested
$69
Value
$72
PnL
+$3
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
149-494 (643)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.