Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, while the market favors TCU Horned Frogs (51%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-33.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (86%) · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at 49¢ · $463 held · ends Nov 11

TCU Horned Frogs51¢Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Consensus Traders

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 86%

Total Value

$463.48

Combined PnL

-$1.32

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 49¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors TCU Horned Frogs 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TCU Horned Frogs51%

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks6 traders

Total Value$458.55

Total Shares950

Combined PnL-$1.09

TCU Horned Frogs1 trader

Total Value$4.93

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.23

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks — 86%TCU Horned Frogs — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 48¢	$162.29	$162.37	+$0.08	56% 119-94 (213)
38 38791873984189CTR	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 48.6¢	$121.5	$120	-$1.5	48% 939-1010 (1949)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 47.9¢	$118.71	$119.06	+$0.35	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 48¢	$48	$48	+$0	50% 262-258 (520)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 48.5¢	$6.79	$6.72	-$0.07	49% 440-464 (904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	TCU Horned Frogsavg 54¢	$5.15	$4.93	-$0.23	26% 177-517 (694)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	50% 1433-1435 (2868)

0xheavy888CTR

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$162.29

Value

$162.37

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

38791873984189CTR

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$121.5

Value

$120

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$118.71

Value

$119.06

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$48

Value

$48

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$6.79

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ameisgoat11<$100

TCU Horned Frogs

Invested

$5.15

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.23

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

Research grade

AvoidLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors TCU Horned Frogs 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.