Spread: Arizona State Sun Devils (-31.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (25%) · Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
8
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 25%
$5.6K
$14.44
53.8¢ → 57¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLouisiana-Monroe Warhawks at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 54¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$167.45 | 53% 535-466 (1001) |
HI hi774cCTR | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 46¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$150 | 21% 156-572 (728) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Louisiana-Monroe Warhawksavg 49.9¢ | $93.65 | $101.3 | +$7.65 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 45.8¢ | $89.36 | $83.95 | -$5.4 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 46.1¢ | $57.68 | $53.75 | -$3.93 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 45.5¢ | $14.69 | $13.89 | -$0.8 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.25 | -$0.4 | 40% 589-893 (1482) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Arizona State Sun Devilsavg 45¢ | $5.02 | $0.92 | -$0.13 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
Invested
$2,996.91
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$167.45
Record
53%
535-466 (1001)
Invested
$2,300
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$150
Record
21%
156-572 (728)
Invested
$93.65
Value
$101.3
PnL
+$7.65
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$89.36
Value
$83.95
PnL
-$5.4
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$57.68
Value
$53.75
PnL
-$3.93
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$14.69
Value
$13.89
PnL
-$0.8
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.4
Record
40%
589-893 (1482)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.02
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
monkeymashingkeyboard
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks — $3.2K
hi774c
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $2.1K
HomeRunHazard
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks — $101.3
38791873984189
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $83.95
Flaznorp
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $53.75
sentrio
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $13.89
ameisgoat11
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $2.25
VeryLucky888
CTRArizona State Sun Devils — $0.92