Spread: UNCW Seahawks (-7.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UNCW Seahawks (100%) · UNCW Seahawks at 50¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
UNCW Seahawks
6
UNCW Seahawks 100%
$8.8K
$435.43
48¢ → 50¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUNCW Seahawks at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on UNCW Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UNCW Seahawksavg 47.9¢ | $7.2K | $7.6K | +$384.68 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
HI hi774c | UNCW Seahawksavg 48¢ | $584.07 | $614.49 | +$30.42 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
 0xheavy888 | UNCW Seahawksavg 49¢ | $326.34 | $336.33 | +$9.99 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
FL Flaznorp | UNCW Seahawksavg 46¢ | $160.54 | $176.25 | +$15.71 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 53¢ | $53 | $47 | -$6 | 9% 25-239 (264) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 48¢ | $95 | $37.62 | +$0.63 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
Invested
$7,212.57
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$384.68
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$584.07
Value
$614.49
PnL
+$30.42
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
0xheavy888Invested
$326.34
Value
$336.33
PnL
+$9.99
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$160.54
Value
$176.25
PnL
+$15.71
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$53
Value
$47
PnL
-$6
Record
9%
25-239 (264)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$95
Value
$37.62
PnL
+$0.63
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.