Spread: UNCW Seahawks (-6.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UNCW Seahawks (89%) · UNCW Seahawks at 50¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 12

UNCW Seahawks50¢Kent State Golden Flashes50¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UNCW Seahawks

Consensus Traders

UNCW Seahawks 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

-$467.69

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 50¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUNCW Seahawks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNCW Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UNCW Seahawks50%

Kent State Golden Flashes50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNCW Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares48,652

Combined PnL-$542.22

Kent State Golden Flashes1 trader

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,453

Combined PnL+$74.53

UNCW Seahawks — 89%Kent State Golden Flashes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on UNCW Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUNCW Seahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUNCW Seahawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNCW Seahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UNCW Seahawks 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	UNCW Seahawksavg 50¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	+$0	—
HO HomeRunHazard	UNCW Seahawksavg 52.4¢	$7.1K	$6.7K	-$312.58	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	UNCW Seahawksavg 51¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$37.01	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
CUTJALENHURTS	Kent State Golden Flashesavg 49¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$74.53	52% 2592-2430 (5022)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	UNCW Seahawksavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$101.47	59% 441-301 (742)
HI hi774c	UNCW Seahawksavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$67.75	14% 77-472 (549)
0xheavy888	UNCW Seahawksavg 53¢	$351.92	$332	-$19.92	55% 205-165 (370)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	UNCW Seahawksavg 50¢	$141.91	$147.9	+$5.99	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ UNCW Seahawks leg	UNCW Seahawksavg 50¢	$88	$88	+$0
└ Kent State Golden Flashes leg	Kent State Golden Flashesavg 45¢	$53.91	$59.9	+$5.99
VeryLucky888	UNCW Seahawksavg 52.7¢	$160.97	$100.01	-$2.89	52% 497-452 (949)
RL RLWG<$100	UNCW Seahawksavg 51¢	$30.6	$30	-$0.6	67% 1661-814 (2475)

yabanci

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$9,856.64

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$7,060.65

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$312.58

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$3,775.45

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$37.01

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

CUTJALENHURTS

Kent State Golden Flashes

Invested

$3,651.89

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$74.53

Record

52%

2592-2430 (5022)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$2,638.09

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$101.47

Record

59%

441-301 (742)

hi774c

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$1,196.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$67.75

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0xheavy888

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$351.92

Value

$332

PnL

-$19.92

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

FlaznorpARB<$100

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$141.91

Value

$147.9

PnL

+$5.99

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

UNCW Seahawks$8850¢+$0

Kent State Golden Flashes$53.9145¢+$5.99

VeryLucky888

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$160.97

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$2.89

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

RLWG<$100

UNCW Seahawks

Invested

$30.6

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.6

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

Research grade

AvoidUNCW Seahawks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UNCW Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on UNCW Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUNCW Seahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUNCW Seahawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNCW Seahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UNCW Seahawks 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNCW Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.