Spread: UNCW Seahawks (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UNCW Seahawks (100%) · UNCW Seahawks at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
UNCW Seahawks
5
UNCW Seahawks 100%
$4.0K
$25.88
57.1¢ → 57.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUNCW Seahawks at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on UNCW Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UNCW Seahawksavg 57.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$10.84 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
HI hi774c | UNCW Seahawksavg 57¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$13.39 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
38 38791873984189 | UNCW Seahawksavg 57¢ | $149.34 | $150.06 | +$1.33 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 57¢ | $5.42 | $5.61 | +$0.19 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 57¢ | $3.99 | $4.13 | +$0.14 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
Invested
$2,243.49
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$10.84
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$1,526.03
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$13.39
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$149.34
Value
$150.06
PnL
+$1.33
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.