Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
James Madison Dukes vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens: O/U 149.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$15.32
47.8¢ → 46.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 50.9¢ | $519.04 | $375.75 | -$27.67 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.9¢ | $226.27 | $206.53 | -$29.45 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.9¢ | $167.44 | $169.22 | +$1.78 | |
FO forecastication4CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $332.76 | $322.36 | -$10.4 | 18% 49-220 (269) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $213.26 | $209.76 | -$3.5 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $48 | $46.5 | -$1.5 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $45.12 | $44.64 | -$0.48 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Overavg 51.4¢ | $21.19 | $21.5 | +$0.31 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.65 | +$0.25 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$519.04
Value
$375.75
PnL
-$27.67
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Both legs:
Invested
$332.76
Value
$322.36
PnL
-$10.4
Record
18%
49-220 (269)
Invested
$213.26
Value
$209.76
PnL
-$3.5
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$45.12
Value
$44.64
PnL
-$0.48
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$21.19
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0.31
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.25
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.