Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold James Madison Dukes, while the market favors Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: James Madison Dukes (-3.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison Dukes (50%) · James Madison Dukes at 48¢ · $508 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
James Madison Dukes
6
James Madison Dukes 50%
$507.54
$31.02
47¢ → 48¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJames Madison Dukes at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on James Madison Dukes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | James Madison Dukesavg 47¢ | $343.1 | $365 | +$21.9 | 14% 76-472 (548) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | James Madison Dukesavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $75 | +$4.5 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 48.3¢ | $50.25 | $54.08 | +$3.83 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | James Madison Dukesavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $10 | +$0.6 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.5 | +$0.15 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensavg 48¢ | $0.92 | $0.96 | +$0.04 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
Invested
$343.1
Value
$365
PnL
+$21.9
Record
14%
76-472 (548)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$4.5
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$50.25
Value
$54.08
PnL
+$3.83
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.