Spread: Houston Cougars (-36.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State Gamecocks (50%) · Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 55¢ · $434 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
4
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 50%
1 arb excluded
$434.31
$26.63
49.4¢ → 54.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJacksonville State Gamecocks at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 48.4¢ | $233.42 | $265.31 | +$31.89 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 48¢ | $71.55 | $76.82 | +$5.27 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
| └ Jacksonville State Gamecocks leg | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 48¢ | $36 | $40.88 | +$4.88 | |
| └ Houston Cougars leg | Houston Cougarsavg 45¢ | $35.55 | $35.95 | +$0.4 | |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 55¢ | $46.2 | $45.78 | -$0.42 | 49% 497-522 (1019) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Houston Cougarsavg 50¢ | $52.45 | $41.4 | -$4.74 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Houston Cougarsavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5 | -$0.1 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$233.42
Value
$265.31
PnL
+$31.89
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$71.55
Value
$76.82
PnL
+$5.27
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.2
Value
$45.78
PnL
-$0.42
Record
49%
497-522 (1019)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$52.45
Value
$41.4
PnL
-$4.74
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.